NICEVILLE, Fla. — An above-normal level of tropical cyclone activity is projected for 2022 in the Atlantic basin, according to a forecast released today by Colorado State University’s (CSU) Department of Atmospheric Science.
CSU’s 2022 forecast calls for a 71 percent chance of a major hurricane making a mainland U.S. landfall, 47 percent for the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula, and 46 percent for the Gulf Coast from the Florida peninsula westward to Brownsville, Texas.
Led by research scientist Phil Klotzbach, PhD, also a non-resident scholar at the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I), the CSU Tropical Meteorology Project team anticipates 19 named storms, nine hurricanes, and four major hurricanes during the 2022 season, which starts on June 1 and continues through Nov. 30.
A typical season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season produced the third-most named storms on record. Seven of last year’s 21 named storms were hurricanes, with four reaching major hurricane intensity.
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Major hurricanes are those with wind speeds reaching Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Eight named storms made U.S. landfall last year, including Category 4 Hurricane Ida, which battered the central Gulf Coast and brought devastating flooding to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. 2021 was also the seventh consecutive year where at least one named storm formed in either April or May.
Klotzbach said that the low probability of a significant El Niño in the Pacific indicates another active Atlantic hurricane season is likely on the horizon, and there is an “above-average probability” for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental U.S. coastlines and in the Caribbean.
“While tropical Atlantic water temperatures are currently near their long-term averages, the warmer-than-normal subtropical eastern Atlantic typically forces a weaker subtropical high and associated weaker winds blowing across the tropical Atlantic,” said Klotzbach.
“These conditions then lead to warmer waters in the tropical Atlantic for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.”
